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US April core PCE +3.1% y/y vs +2.9% expected

Highlights from the PCE report for April 2021:

  • Prior was +1.8%
  •  PCE core MoM +0.7% vs +0.6% expected
  •  Prior MoM +0.4%
  •  Deflator YoY +3.6% vs +3.5% expected
  •  Prior deflator YoY +2.4%
  •  Deflator MoM +0.6% vs +0.6% expected
  •  Prior MoM deflator +0.5% (revised to +0.6%)

This is all a touch on the strong side but I think the market was braced or priced for something worse. The dollar has dipped on the data.

Consumers spending and income for April:

  • Personal income -13.1% vs -14.2% expected. Prior month +20.9%
  • Personal spending +0.5% vs +0.5% expected. Prior month +4.7%
  • Real personal spending -0.1% vs +0.2% expected. Prior month +4.6%

There were some upward revisions to March spending as the late-month stimulus checks came in. Spending held up into April but it’s it’s tough to separate stimulus money from the real economy and that will continue to be a challenge in the months ahead.

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