News

ANZ forecasts for oil prices ahead of Monday and Tuesday’s OPEC+ meetings

ANZ are expecting expect further drawdowns in global inventories ahead:

The outlook for road transportation fuels is improving strongly ahead of the northern hemisphere’s summer driving season. 

  • High vaccination rates have seen restrictions ease and mobility increase in the US and Europe.
  • In fact, gasoline demand has now exceeded 2019 levels in many areas.
  • This may be partly offset by weakness in Asia,which is suffering a wave of COVID-19. 
  • This should offset concerns of additional Iranian oil hitting the market

We see demand outstripping supply in the order of 650kb/d and 950kb/d in Q3 and Q4 respectively. This includes 0.5mb/d increase in Iranian output.

OPEC is likely to take a cautious approach at (its) meeting. 

  • We expect the scheduled increase of 840kb/d in July to be ratified. However,the group is unlikely to provide any guidance on output in August
  • Another 1mb/d of oil would certainly slow the current drain on inventories. This will ultimately limit the price rise

We maintain our year-end forecast of $75/bbl for Brent crude. 

Invest in yourself. See our forex education hub.

Articles You May Like

Deliveroo first-half losses widen as food delivery firm plans exit from the Netherlands
Dollar Hammered after CPI Miss, Yen Strongest But Others May Catch Up
Uber reports another big loss but beats on revenue, shares pop 19%
Yen Stays Weak in Quiet Markets, US CPI to Move the Markets This Week
Weekly jobless claims rise to 260,000 ahead of nonfarm payrolls report

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.