Russia raises its inflation, GDP, capex forecasts

Russian economy ministry issues revised forecasts

  • 2021 GDP growth forecast up to 3.8% from 2.9%
  • lifts Urals oil
    price forecast to $65.9/bbl from $60.3/bbl
  • 2021 inflation
    forecast to 5% from 4.3%
  • 2021 capital
    investment growth forecast to 4.5% from 3.3%
  • 2021 average
    dollar/rouble rate to 72.8 from 73.3 seen in April

The ministry comments on the higher forecasts:

  • We see the economy is recovering faster than we had expected
  • Our experts say the economic recovery potential is not exhausted yet

On the currency:

  • We all realise that the rouble price should be different at oil prices of $75 per barrel
  • current rouble weakness blamed on sanction risks, OPEC+ uncertainty around global oil output.

Russia’s inflation target is 4%, the latest reading has it at 6.5%. Russia’s central bank is expected to raise its key rate again from 5.5% on July 23. 

USD/RUB daily chart:

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