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China economic growth forecasts being slashed to close to 30 year lows

Some info from various places around on what analysts are looking for from Chinese GDP ahead. 

Bloomberg cites Citi and BoA:

  • among those sounding the warning that expansion will fall short this year of the 8.2% anticipated by the consensus of economists. The slump could last into next year, forcing growth below 5%, they warn. Outside 2020’s 2.3%, that would be the weakest in three decades.

BoA:

  • President Xi may …  be embracing … restructuring of the economy … “If so, the data flow from China could confound even the pessimists, and we are on guard for that scenario unfolding” 
  • predicted growth of 7.7% this year and 4% in 2022

Meanwhile Goldman Sachs elsewhere have cut their  2022 GDP forecast to 5.2% from 5.6%

The counter to this is that China is actively seeking to boost domestic demand. The country was not as generous with fiscal support as many other economies so they have scope to splash out stimulus if they do decide to. We may get something out of this:
  • The leaders of China’s Communist Party, the party’s decision-making Central Committee, will convene on November 8. the meeting will go through to November 11. 

although the main policy focus of the summit is expected to be on power and political structure. 

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