Technical Analysis

USDCAD correcting higher and looks to test 100 hour MA


USDCAD tests its 100 hour moving average

The USDCAD is moving higher in reaction to the USDs general move to the upside.

Helping the trend is the rise in yields.

  • 2 year 0.955%, +5 point basis points
  • 10 year 1.759%, +5.3 basis points
  • 30 year 2.098%, +5.2 basis points

Technically, the pair also is getting a boost in the North American session after the price failed on the breaks below its 200 day moving average near 1.2500 area (the 200 day moving averages at 1.24986). The inability to stay below that longer-term moving average both yesterday and today, has helped lead to disappointing buying from shorts and new buying from dip buyers.

Of note as well today is that the rise in oil prices currently at $82.83 is up $0.70 on the day and not helping to strengthen the CAD.

The move to the upside has the price now testing the 100 hour moving average at 1.25559 (blue line – moving lower is moving lower). The price fell below the 100 hour moving average for the last time last Friday, and after testing that moving average intraday, and again getting close to it at the highs on Monday, the sellers took control and pushed price to the downside

The move from Monday’s high to Thursday’s low was around 245 pips over the four-day period.

Now with the failure below the 200 day moving average, the pair has corrected up to test the 100 hour moving average once again. Stay below and sellers can retest the 200 day moving average. Move above, and the high from Wednesday at 1.2577, the 38.2% retracement of the move down from last week’s high at 1.2590, and a swing area between 1.2609 and 1.2620 would be the next targets. Also near that swing area is the 100 day moving average at 1.2621 and the falling 200 hour moving average currently at 1.2632.

For now however, the 100 hour moving averages stalling the rise.

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