EUR/USD Price Analysis: Slumps but stays around 1.0710s after upbeat US data

  • The EUR/USD is set to finish the week almost flat, though with a minimal loss,
  • Risk-aversion boosted the appetite for the greenback, though it weighed on the EUR/USD.
  • EUR/USD Price Forecast: To consolidate in the 1.0627-1.0787 range, but downside risks remain.

The EUR/USD edges lower as the New York session winds down, trimming some of Thursday’s gains, but remains above the 1.0700 threshold due to the 50-day moving average (DMA) acting as support around 1.0718. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.0719.

Dampened sentiment weighed on the EUR, and the USD rose

US equities finished the session with hefty losses, between 1.05% and 2.47%. Positive US jobs report further cemented the case for a US Federal Reserve rate hike of 50 bps in the June meeting, despite worries that the US central bank could cause a recession.

On Friday, the EUR/USD opened near the session highs at around 1.0745 and edged up towards 1.0760, shy of the R1 daily pivot at 1.0782. However, traders dragged the EUR/USD below the daily pivot in the European session and pierced the 50-hour simple moving average (SMA) at 1.0712. Nevertheless, the EUR/USD seesawed on the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report to finally settling down at current price levels.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The EUR/USD remains downward biased, despite the major reaching a fresh weekly high at 1.0787. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), in bullish territory, begins to drift lower. Hence, the EUR/USD might consolidate between the 1.0627-1.0787 range before resuming downwards.

The EUR/USD 4-hour chart depicts the major range-bound. However, the pair is back above the 50-simple moving average (SMA) at 1.0716, consolidating near the daily pivot, which sits at 1.0714.

Upwards, the EUR/USD’s first resistance would be June 3 daily high at 1.0764. A breach of the latter would expose May’s 30 high at 1.0787, followed by the 1.0800 mark. On the other hand, the EUR/USD first support would be the 1.0700 figure. Break below would expose June’s 1 swing low at 1.0627, followed by the 200-SMA at 1.0618.

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