FX

Alibaba Stock Forecast: BABA closes in on $100 psychological level

  • Alibaba benefits from renewed confidence in China stocks.
  • BABA shares rose 6.2% on Monday but lost $100 footing.
  • Chinese regulators have closed their investigation into Didi Global.

Alibaba (BABA) stock had many admirers on Monday to start the week. Shares of China’s largest ecommerce provider charged ahead by 6.2% after news emerged during the Hong Kong session that Chinese regulators were ending their high-profile investigation of Didi Global.

Though Alibaba’s planned IPO of former subsidiary Ant Global is what initially launched the great Chinese ADR sell-off in late 2020, Didi Global became the poster child of a tempestuous Chinese regulatory hierarchy after state officers began a combative probe into Didi’s data collection practices just days after the company listed for the first time in the US. Didi quickly descendied from its $14 IPO price to trade below $2 when it announced it May that it would comply with state direction and delist its US shares.

Didi, along with two other Chinese companies listed in the US, is expected to face a major fine and must hand the state 1% ownership. The end of the investigation, however, seemingly also brings to an end the 18-month tech crackdown that has cost Chinese investors at least $1 trillion in share value. 

Though BABA shares traded as high as $102.42 on Monday, they could not maintain their perch atop the ever important $100 psychological level and instead closed at $99.01. In Tuesday’s premarket, BABA stock is once again advancing – at the time of writing it is up 1.4% at $100.37. $100 has acted as both resistance and support in the past six months, and yesterday was no different. 

Alibaba Stock Forecast: First target is $110

The BABA stock price has been trading within a symmetrical wedge structure (blue) since March 15. Before that the top line of the formation began back on November 18, 2021, and until February 24 strong support was found at $110. 

Alibaba stock attempted to break through the $100 barrier in late April and early May but gave up after four sessions. Now the top line of the wedge sits at $101. This will make the area even more difficult to power through. If BABA shares can close above the April 29 high of $103.51, then this will signal a new bear rally. The first bull target is $110, as mentioned previously. This level acted as first support and then resistance from December 2021 through this April consistently.

Above here is further resistance at $119.60. Both levels will supply likely take profit points for bullish traders. Support should sit somewhere between $83 and $84 on the ascending bottom line of the wedge.

BABA daily chart


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