FX

USD/JPY looks certain to hit 150.00 if BOJ delays intervention

  • USD/JPY is aiming to kiss the 150.00 despite the upbeat market mood.
  • The odds for BOJ’s intervention are getting air as the USD/JPY is advancing despite the vulnerable DXY.
  • Japan’s exports would accelerate amid overall weakness in the Japanese yen.

The USD/JPY pair is hovering around the immediate hurdle of 149.00 in the Tokyo session. The asset has delivered an upside break of the rangebound structure formed in a 148.41-148.89 area despite the cheerful market mood.

The mighty US dollar index (DXY) is underperforming against other risk-perceived currencies amid a decline in safe-haven’s appeal. Meanwhile, risk sentiment has turned extremely positive. S&P500 displayed a V-shape recovery on Monday after a bloody Friday. However, the 10-year US Treasury yields are still holding the critical figure of 4% as bets on a 75 basis point (bps) rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) are significant.

The ongoing north-side momentum in the USD/JPY is appealing to hit the psychological hurdle of 150.00, backed by dovish policy guidance by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). On Friday, BOJ’s Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stated that “It is appropriate to continue monetary easing,” reported Reuters. He further added that the central bank sees inflationary pressures declining to 2%, therefore, a continuation of dovish monetary policy is highly required.

This has left no other option for the BOJ than to intervene in the currency market. Japan’s officials are repeatedly conveying the preparedness of the BOJ for intervening in FX moves to support the Japanese yen due to excess forex moves based on speculation. Japan’s Finance Minister Shun’ichi Suzuki cited that “they are constantly watching FX movements with a sense of urgency”

Going forward, Tuesday’s Japan Trade data will be keenly watched. As per the consensus, imports will decline to 45% from the prior release of 49.9% while exports will scale to 27.1% vs. the former release of 22.1% due to the weak yen.

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