Technical Analysis

US stocks close higher. Two day up streak for the major indices

The major US stock indices are closing the day with gains across the board. The NASDAQ index is a leading the way with a rise of near 1% Dow industrial average is the laggard as it tested the August high and backed off in trading today. The down and up lap is complete (see chart below) and it looks pretty symetrical as well.

Dow erased the declines and returned to the August high

In contrast, the NASDAQ index is still WELL below the August corrective high indicative of a risk focus NOT on the tech sector, but more on the cyclical industrials.

Nasdaq stays below 100D MA and August high

Does that dynamic change?

I don’t think it is that easy or likely as the Fed is intent to continue to take rates higher (i.e., fed funds), but what we know is if market yields move lower (i.e. the yield curve), the Nasdaq tends to outperform.

Today, US yields moved lower helped by weaker data. The initial claims for the current week were much higher at 240K versus 225K estimate. Durable goods orders were stronger, but the S&P Global manufacturing and services PMI data was weaker for the month of November.

The two year yield is down -3.4 basis points. The 10 year yield is trading down -6.5 basis points. The 30 year yield is down -10 basis points.

The FOMC meeting minutes confirm the idea that the “pace” of Fed tightening’s is to slow (i.e. 75 bps goes to 50 bps), but the Fed would continue to tighten.

The final numbers for the stock indices are showing:

  • Dow industrial average is up 97 points or 0.28% at 34195.10
  • S&P index is up 23.88 points or 0.60% at 4027.45
  • NASDAQ index is up 110.92 points or 0.99% at 11285.33
  • Russell 2000+3.07 points or +0.17% at 1863.51

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