EUR/GBP: Poor UK fundamentals to be a drag on the Pound – Rabobank

Strategists at Rabobank point out that the change in the Bank of England’s language favours the doves, they see scope for further rate rises. They continue to expect poor United Kingdom fundamentals to be a drag on the British Pound.  

Key quotes:

“The USD has found further traction on the back of the January US jobs report. That said, the single currency has still managed to climb against the beleaguered GBP, with the latter undermined by the market’s interpretation that the BoE may be even closer to peak policy rates. EUR/GBP continues to edge towards our 0.90 target. We maintain our forecast of EUR/USD1.06 on a 3 month view.”

“Weak productivity, low investment growth, high inflation, recession conditions (albeit at a less severe pace that previously signalled by the Bank), and a current account deficit are all likely to weigh on GBP this year. We continue to expect EUR/GBP to grind higher to 0.90 by the middle of the year and while we see scope for another move below GBP/USD 1.20 on a 3 month view.”

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